yamarev

could the snow finally be starting to fall??

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Damn good looking snow forecast over the next 4 days, over 20" of snow over 4 days?? we will see? his short range forcasts have been pretty good this year and Thursday and Friday are right around the corner. I hope it pans out, I love March and April riding!


/>http://www.johnsnhweather.com/wxsimforecast.php

Edited by yamarev

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Unfortunately this year those predictions beyond 36 hours have been evaporating with alarming frequency. Wait until tomorrow evening at least before you place your bet! :good:

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Picking up the NWS forecast for Thursday night and later:

A surge of cooler middle-level air behind the surface low will allow middle levels to cool enough in advance of next system...that any precipitation that develops after midnight will start as snow. Most places will not see any precipitation until just before sunrise...but SW zones could see an inch or so by daybreak Friday. The departing low pressure from Thursday deepens and slows down...forcing the Friday system to track more Easterly than northerly. However...the European model (ecmwf) continues to hang significant energy back...that prolongs the storm system for Sat.

Confidence has increased enough for Cat pop in the Friday timeframe...spreading from SW to NE through the day. Rapid secondary cyclogenesis in vicinity of eastern mass will help to slow or stall the advance of warm air aloft. Sounding analysis show warm nose approaching 0c during the height of the precipitation. This would mean an ice pellets mix or poor ratio snfl for a time during the day Friday near the transition zone. Wet bulb temperatures at onset suggest much of the area could start as snow...before usual suspects rise above freezing on a S/southeast wind. This would favor little accumulate S of pwm along the seacoast...and inland to near Concord. However...the latest trends suggest that the foothills and mountains appear likely to remain frozen. 22/15z and 22/09z sref guidance also places high probs for 0.50" of precipitation in 6 hours along the southeasterly upslope zones of the White Mountains this is a favored location for SW flow snow events...and have made sure the quantitative precipitation forecast/snfl grids reflect this feature. Dry slot will quickly move in...so precipitation will have a finite time to accumulate. But a nice 9 hour period of good lift within the snow growth zone could see snfl easily approach warning criteria if upper levels remain cooler. Have leaned closer to the cooler mav guidance for surface temperatures Friday...except across southeastern New Hampshire where temperatures could rise sharply in southeasterly onshore flow.

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Does anyone understand that?:dunno:

Can someone translate that for me?:dunno:

I will try to let you know what is actually happening up here over the next few days.:good:

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I'm sorry can't help you out on that one but a good old update would be nice

I will do my best. :good:

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Picking up the NWS forecast for Thursday night and later:

A surge of cooler middle-level air behind the surface low will allow middle levels to cool enough in advance of next system...that any precipitation that develops after midnight will start as snow. Most places will not see any precipitation until just before sunrise...but SW zones could see an inch or so by daybreak Friday. The departing low pressure from Thursday deepens and slows down...forcing the Friday system to track more Easterly than northerly. However...the European model (ecmwf) continues to hang significant energy back...that prolongs the storm system for Sat.

Confidence has increased enough for Cat pop in the Friday timeframe...spreading from SW to NE through the day. Rapid secondary cyclogenesis in vicinity of eastern mass will help to slow or stall the advance of warm air aloft. Sounding analysis show warm nose approaching 0c during the height of the precipitation. This would mean an ice pellets mix or poor ratio snfl for a time during the day Friday near the transition zone. Wet bulb temperatures at onset suggest much of the area could start as snow...before usual suspects rise above freezing on a S/southeast wind. This would favor little accumulate S of pwm along the seacoast...and inland to near Concord. However...the latest trends suggest that the foothills and mountains appear likely to remain frozen. 22/15z and 22/09z sref guidance also places high probs for 0.50" of precipitation in 6 hours along the southeasterly upslope zones of the White Mountains this is a favored location for SW flow snow events...and have made sure the quantitative precipitation forecast/snfl grids reflect this feature. Dry slot will quickly move in...so precipitation will have a finite time to accumulate. But a nice 9 hour period of good lift within the snow growth zone could see snfl easily approach warning criteria if upper levels remain cooler. Have leaned closer to the cooler mav guidance for surface temperatures Friday...except across southeastern New Hampshire where temperatures could rise sharply in southeasterly onshore flow.

*pssst!* I'm gonna need that in the "stupid person" format! Please? It looks to me like a half inch of snow.

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WMUR is saying a possibility of 6" north and west of concord....

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*pssst!* I'm gonna need that in the "stupid person" format! Please? It looks to me like a half inch of snow.

Remember the classic movie "Airplane" where a passenger offers to translate a conversation with an urban resident? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qa1rjCZxtxo

Yeah, the NWS does love to speak jive. Hard to catch their mistakes that way, I guess. Who's gonna question somebody who knows the words "secondary cyclogenesis"? Kind of like walking out of the doctor's office wondering whether to buy aspirin or a cemetery lot.

Anyway, I read this as they believe that a blast of cold air will come in tomorrow night and meet the warm, wet, air arriving after midnight. There should be snow over most of New Hampshire, but an on-shore wind along the coast will cause a turnover to rain there. The dividing line is still unknown, but right now they think it's near Concord. There's about a ½" of water available, so depending on where you are you could get anything from a ½" of rain to 6"+ of snow, with the mountains more likely to get all snow.

BTW: Secondary cyclogenesis occurs when a low pressure system causes tornado-like winds that grow explosively. I guess they're saying it could get pretty windy in places, and are looking at small craft advisories for Friday.

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Seeing how we've lost our frost down here, I'll gladly wish any snow further north where it can be used.

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I was starting to hope we could ride in our local stomping grounds and jumping fields.......hope is fading.

*RANT WARNING!!!* I think Mother Nature has Old Man Winter whipped! He needs to grow a pair and tell he is the man of the land and he has a job to do and do it! To heaven with her and her flowers and birdsong! :angry: *stomps foot*

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Remember the classic movie "Airplane" where a passenger offers to translate a conversation with an urban resident?

Yeah, the NWS does love to speak jive. Hard to catch their mistakes that way, I guess. Who's gonna question somebody who knows the words "secondary cyclogenesis"? Kind of like walking out of the doctor's office wondering whether to buy aspirin or a cemetery lot.

Anyway, I read this as they believe that a blast of cold air will come in tomorrow night and meet the warm, wet, air arriving after midnight. There should be snow over most of New Hampshire, but an on-shore wind along the coast will cause a turnover to rain there. The dividing line is still unknown, but right now they think it's near Concord. There's about a ½" of water available, so depending on where you are you could get anything from a ½" of rain to 6"+ of snow, with the mountains more likely to get all snow.

BTW: Secondary cyclogenesis occurs when a low pressure system causes tornado-like winds that grow explosively. I guess they're saying it could get pretty windy in places, and are looking at small craft advisories for Friday.

Does that include snowmobiles? :rofl:

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Picking up the NWS forecast for Thursday night and later:

A surge of cooler middle-level air behind the surface low will allow middle levels to cool enough in advance of next system...that any precipitation that develops after midnight will start as snow. Most places will not see any precipitation until just before sunrise...but SW zones could see an inch or so by daybreak Friday. The departing low pressure from Thursday deepens and slows down...forcing the Friday system to track more Easterly than northerly. However...the European model (ecmwf) continues to hang significant energy back...that prolongs the storm system for Sat.

Confidence has increased enough for Cat pop in the Friday timeframe...spreading from SW to NE through the day. Rapid secondary cyclogenesis in vicinity of eastern mass will help to slow or stall the advance of warm air aloft. Sounding analysis show warm nose approaching 0c during the height of the precipitation. This would mean an ice pellets mix or poor ratio snfl for a time during the day Friday near the transition zone. Wet bulb temperatures at onset suggest much of the area could start as snow...before usual suspects rise above freezing on a S/southeast wind. This would favor little accumulate S of pwm along the seacoast...and inland to near Concord. However...the latest trends suggest that the foothills and mountains appear likely to remain frozen. 22/15z and 22/09z sref guidance also places high probs for 0.50" of precipitation in 6 hours along the southeasterly upslope zones of the White Mountains this is a favored location for SW flow snow events...and have made sure the quantitative precipitation forecast/snfl grids reflect this feature. Dry slot will quickly move in...so precipitation will have a finite time to accumulate. But a nice 9 hour period of good lift within the snow growth zone could see snfl easily approach warning criteria if upper levels remain cooler. Have leaned closer to the cooler mav guidance for surface temperatures Friday...except across southeastern New Hampshire where temperatures could rise sharply in southeasterly onshore flow.

OMG, this post is awesome. I'm going to interpret it as "it's gonna snow like hell". Just watch out for the "cat poop" :)

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Randy: Can I get you something?

Second Jive Dude: 'S'mofo butter layin' me to da' BONE! Jackin' me up... tight me!

Randy: I'm sorry, I don't understand.

First Jive Dude: Cutty say 'e can't HANG!

Jive Lady: Oh stewardess! I speak jive.

Randy: Oh, good.

Jive Lady: He said that he's in great pain and he wants to know if you can help him.

Randy: All right. Would you tell him to just relax and I'll be back as soon as I can with some medicine?

Jive Lady: [to the Second Jive Dude] Jus' hang loose, blood. She gonna catch ya up on da' rebound on da' med side.

Second Jive Dude: What it is, big mama? My mama no raise no dummies. I dug her rap!

Jive Lady: Cut me some slack, Jack! Chump don' want no help, chump don't GET da' help!

First Jive Dude: Say 'e can't hang, say seven up!

Jive Lady: Jive ass dude don't got no brains anyhow! Shiiiiit.

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Shhh, pay no attention to the clouds outside.

nothing. It means nothing. lol

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Friday, February 24

Surprising snow in Berlin ,Conn .

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As of 10:16am today the NWS has a Winter weather advisory for Southern Carroll county south to Merrimack county for 4"-6" of snow between 5:00pm today and 4:00am Saturday.

There's a Winter storm warning for Northern Carroll county north for 4"-8" of snow in that same time period.

The snow will be mixed with rain in southern areas this afternoon.

Not enough to do the the southern counties much good, although if we get close to 6" there will be some who will give it a try.

Should help the folks north of the Lakes Region if they were able to hold on to any of their base, Bear Notch comes to mind.

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Rain in B o W .:cray:

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